Seth's Blog : Brittle systems

Brittle systems

Large organizations are purpose-built to do what they do, under prevailing conditions.

People are hired, assets are acquired, measurements are put in place–all to optimize what’s happening right here and right now.

In 1929, 200 million telegrams were sent. The wiring, technology, staffing, real estate holdings and marketing of Western Union were all optimized around delivering these telegrams profitably and with quality.

By most external measures, it was working, brilliantly. There weren’t too many things you could do to make the telegram system dramatically better.

When the change agent appears, the optimized organization stumbles. It takes heroic work to shift it for a new reality. Short-run efficiency rarely aligns with long-term resilience.

More often than not, it’s the insurgent that takes the lead. All they need to do is optimize for the new reality, they can skip the part about restructuring what they already have.

This is sort of obvious, but worth saying out loud. And while these shifts used to take decades, now they happen far more quickly. It hardly pays to be the dominant maker of fax machines in 2025.

If you’re an insurgent with a small team and fixed asset base, be on the hunt for a change agent that is going to swamp existing systems. When the change comes, you’re ready for new rules and the competition is hoping for stability.

And if you’re part of a dominant incumbent organization, perhaps it’s time to start looking for a new gig instead of hoping to wait out the shift. Because the new normal is rarely a return to the old normal.