Seth's Blog : The paradox of lottery thinking

The paradox of lottery thinking

Tim Brownson points us to this recent poll of people in Great Britain. About one out of four people surveyed (of all ages) believe that they could qualify for the Olympics if they trained for the next four years.

This is absurd. It’s the very absurdity of it that makes it common. “I could do that,” is easier to say when we’re sure we can’t. Even if we had the talent, the resources and the time, the odds are so slim that it’s essentially a lottery. We’re off the hook, so it’s easy to pretend.

What could we do if we spent the next four years on it? We could write and publish a symphony, start a reasonably successful small business, make a substantial contribution to our community, improve our physical health, engage more deeply with family and friends, learn to juggle or play the piano.

Someone is going to win the lottery, but it probably won’t be us.