Seth's Blog : No reason to be surprised
No reason to be surprised
Now and then, someone comes along who surprises the status quo. She didn’t do well on her SATs but ends up writing a brilliant novel. She didn’t go to a famous college but builds a successful enterprise…
The surprising thing isn’t that success is uncorrelated with the filters we’ve set up. The surprising thing is that we think the filters and signals are actually accurately correlated with future success.
They’re not.
…
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