Seth's Blog : The shard moment of transition

The shard moment of transition

When a new technology arrives, it appears unpolished, ill-formed and a bit wonky.

As it gains traction, existing industries and processes begin to be threatened, often before their replacements in the new technology are fully ready.

This is how Napster showed up for the music business, or email for faxes, or television for radio. Same with online shopping, smart phones and online learning.

The pointy part is the precipice–a shard where change is inevitable, but also feels fraught. The biggest gap between fear and hope. This is when foreboding in the existing industries begins to peak, and it’s not clear that the new tech is going to be able to absorb the energy, investment and attention of folks who can feel the old ways slipping away.

Right now, we’re seeing the beginning of that phase for AI.

People are either concerned about the future of their old ways, or in denial and ignoring what’s going on around them.

I’ve never seen a smooth handoff between technology regimes, and I’m not expecting one now. Not-smooth doesn’t mean it’s not going to happen, though.

Organizations and leaders can’t wait until the next steps are obvious and safe. At that point, it’s too late.